Methodology
Read the reasoning with the limits in view.
A guide to distinguishing reported facts, analysis, directional interpretation and uncertainty in Global Vega.
White House · 2 Apr 2025
Read the report, then examine the interpretation.
Trump announces 10% baseline tariff; higher country rates follow.
Explore the report and analysisExplore Global Vega through selected market events, shown at their original dates.
- Reported information
- The April 2 order introduced an additional 10% duty on covered imports from April 5, with higher country-specific rates from April 9. It included exceptions and separate treatment for Canada and Mexico.
- Interpretation
- Tariffs can raise import costs and change sourcing decisions. The effect on margins depends on whether businesses absorb the cost, change suppliers or pass it to customers. Demand and pricing power determine how much of that cost becomes an earnings consequence.
- Uncertainty
- This describes the April 2 announcement. Exemptions, later policy changes and customer responses can change the effect. The order does not establish a particular stock return.
Start with the reported facts.
Ask what happened, when it happened and what the available sources establish. A report and an independently confirmed fact may have different evidential limits. Source context should help the reader examine that distinction.
Read analysis as interpretation.
Analysis explains why a development may matter. Possible effects on a company, industry or market depend on assumptions and context. An interpretation can change as additional evidence appears.
Keep uncertainty visible.
Missing evidence, incomplete coverage, timing and plausible alternative explanations affect what can be concluded. Information can be delayed, incomplete, unavailable or inaccurate. Review original sources and independent evidence.
Use directional language carefully.
Directional interpretation describes a possible effect on a market or entity. It does not guarantee the direction, size or timing of a future move. A confidence label is not a probability of profit or market direction unless a supported, reviewed method establishes that meaning.
Keep source coverage in context.
A global development can have different implications for companies, industries and supply chains. Coverage varies by source and event. An illustrated globe is not a live signal feed; use the original report and its date to understand the context.
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